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Monday, November 03, 2008

Obama Economic Debris

Some Pittsburg plumbers describe exactly what will happen to their businesses and employees if Obama's tax plans are enacted.
Flush go the plumbers: "By RALPH R. REILAND
I INTERVIEWED two plumbing-company owners in Pittsburgh recently about Barack Obama's economic proposals for small businesses. One has 15 workers and 12 trucks, the other 52 and 34 trucks. It's Joe the Plumber, writ large.

Both had the same reaction to Obama's proposed new taxes and mandates. To not have their bottom lines reduced by government fiat, both said they'd be forced to lay off employees."
They go into detail on exactly how much each regulatory change and tax will increase costs, and how that translates into corresponding layoffs. Anyone who has ever run a business, or even part of one, will immediately appreciate that personnel costs are the biggest chunk of the budget. Well, not every small business will have layoffs; some will just close. Peer into the future offered by TheOne.

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Saturday, October 25, 2008

Who Should We Trust on Economics?

If John McCain loses this election, chances are the chief reason will be the concerns we all have about the economy and the current financial crisis. Arguably, McCain's instincts to return to Washington to work on the "emergency" bailout bill were noble. They're certainly in tune with his overall perspective on every issue: Country First. However, Obama's decision to stay as far as possible from the negotiations paid off. The press and the rest of the Democrats falsely, but successfully, laid the blame for the crisis on Pres. Bush and the markets. Obama and McCain were neck-and-neck when the crisis broke, but Obama opened and held a lead as events developed.

As much as everyone is fed up with the Bush Administration, let's consider which party and which presidential candidate is better equipped to deal with the ongoing economic problems we face. There are essentially two ways of looking at society and the economy: from an individualistic standpoint or a collectivist one. Remarking on the Joe the Plumber phenomenon, Jonah Goldberg writes on National Review Online:
"Who knows what it will do for McCain in the end, but the Joe the Plumber phenomenon is real. At the rally, supporters carried handmade signs reading “Phil the Bricklayer” and “Rose the Teacher.” Wurzelbacher symbolizes an optimistic, individualistic vision of America sorely lacking — until recently — in McCain’s rhetoric.

Barack Obama, in contrast, has offered the most rhetorically eloquent defense of collectivism since Franklin D. Roosevelt. In his biographical video at the Democratic convention, he proclaimed that in America, “one person’s struggle is all of our struggles.” In his acceptance speech, he artfully replaced the idea of the American dream with the century-old progressive nostrum of “America’s promise.”

But the two visions are in opposition: the former individualistic, the latter collectivist. We each have our own idea of the American dream. Joe the Plumber’s is to own a small plumbing company; yours might be something else entirely. In America, that’s fine, because the pursuit of happiness is an individual, not a collective, right."
The two parties embody these competing visions of economic policies, although imperfectly. The Republican ideals are those of individual effort, risk taking, and the freedom to win rewards or suffer failure. This is the view of the individual in control of his/her own destiny and responsible for what he/she makes of opportunities. The Democrat view is that most people are not able to fend for themselves, and it is the responsibility of society to take care of them through government actions. The individualist view leads to a desire to keep taxes down and the sphere of government actions limited. The collectivist view leads to a desire to add new government programs, expand existing ones, and seek an ever higher share of the "national wealth" to promote "fairness."

There certainly are exceptions to the party breakdown on this point. John McCain has hardly been a staunch supporter of limited government and the individual in economic policies. It's impossible to argue that George W. Bush has been keeping the size and role of government in check. There probably are some Democrats who support minimizing the government's interference in markets and letting people keep what they earn, but I am unable to come up with any examples of prominent figures in the Democrat party today.

The collectivist view calls for government to "create jobs." The individualist view sees that real jobs only come from private enterprise. The visible jobs "created" by government spending are more than matched by the less visible jobs lost or not created in the private sector.

The ultimate outcomes of these two competing visions are easy to see, if we look. Low taxes and economic freedom are always associated with growth, jobs, flexible adaptation to changes, and rising standards of living. High taxes and extensive government regulation of economic activities are always associated with slow/no growth, misallocations of resources, high unemployment, and stagnation. Taken to its limits (i.e. Marxism), the collectivist view destroys the private sector and even leads to complete breakdown of society and famine. These results are consistent, wherever they are tried: the stagnation of European socialism; the growth of tax-cutting European states; the perpetual economic failures of communist governments; and the improvements even there when markets are allowed to work.

The American economy is still the envy of the world, but that is not our birthright. It is the result of our sustained commitment to economic freedom and individualism. That system is threatened today. As a result of the bailout much of the banking system is effectively nationalized at this point. It is imperative that these companies be returned to private hands as soon as practical. Otherwise the banking system will become just another political honey pot, used to reward favored groups. Meanwhile, the main causes of the crisis, the quasi-government/quasi-private Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not dead, and the political forces that created them are still in place. We need to drive stakes through the hearts of these companies now to make sure they are never allowed to re-awaken and repeat the activities that brought us to the brink of financial ruin.

Frankly, I don't know if we can trust John McCain to make the right economic decisions going forward. However, it is completely clear that Barack Obama and potentially large Democrat majorities in the House and Senate are sure to make the wrong decisions for our economic future. We can at least hope that McCain will counter some bad policies.

Obama's history shows a consistent desire to ally and align himself with far left people and groups. His proposed "tax cuts" are nothing but income transfer plans, welfare checks to those who don't work paid for with confiscatory taxes on those who do. He, like many Democrats, speak as though all private income rightfully belongs to the government. His appetite for massive, new government programs to solve all society's ills is insatiable: national healthcare; new alternative energy schemes; new payments to the UN; a new Dept. of Peace and Non-Violence; and more. He has shown hostility toward free trade in talking of "renegotiating" NAFTA and opposing the free trade agreement with Columbia. It's widely agreed that the Great Depression was precipitated in part by the protectionism of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Free market capitalism is not just the most efficient mechanism for organizing a society and generating wealth. It is also the most moral, because if you want something from someone else you must offer something of value in return. Obama's rhetoric is full of class warfare clichés and denunciations of "trickledown economics." He is set to sweep into office promising only "change" with a crisis to justify whatever he defines that change to be, and a huge partisan majority to enact his visions. Based on what he tells us of his plans and what we can guess he is not telling us, this would be extremely bad.

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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Root Cause of the Financial Crisis

This relatively short video is right on the money in describing what has caused the destabilization of the financial system. The problems didn't develop overnight, and, as usual, government policies based on Good Intentions led to unintended consequences. The information content of the video is quite "dense," so frequent use of the pause button is suggested.

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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Some Evidence This May Really Be Necessary

We found it well nigh impossible to support the original Paulson "plan" for solving the current financial crisis. Giving one person the authority to handout $700 billion without oversight or even objective criteria for spending it is hardly worthy of being called a plan. It seems more likely to make a terrible situation even worse. However, there is definitely still a major crisis just below the surface, as evidenced by this article in todays' Financial Times:
Bail-out fears hit credit markets: "Amid uncertainty about the plan’s prospects, US money market funds controlling thousands of billions of dollars in assets led a stampede to safety, buying short-term government debt, selling commercial paper and withdrawing funds from the interbank market. As a result, the rates that banks charge each other soared, while yields on Treasury bills plunged."
It was some money market funds "breaking the buck" that got Paulson and Congress panicked into this bill, and this is what causes that. Normally, money market funds are super-safe mutual funds that buy only short term debt from high quality companies (and/or government paper). They maintain their share prices at $1/share, so the feel is "just like" a bank account. Last week was, I believe, the first time ever that any money market fund had a share price drop below a dollar. If money market funds, just about the lowest risk investment in existence, could become unsafe, widespread, catastrophic panic is at hand.

Let's hope our government can pass a bill and run a policy that will pull us away from the abyss. Based on the failure to understand (or at least failure to admit) the root causes of the current crisis, we're concerned.

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Saturday, September 20, 2008

The Problem with Liberals

Fred Thompson's speech at the Republican National Convention was somewhat overshadowed by the blockbusters Sarah Palin and Rudy Guliani delivered, but it was excellent in its own right. Our favorite part was this one:
"We need a president who understands that you don't make citizens prosperous by making Washington richer, and you don't lift an economic downturn by imposing one of the largest tax increases in American history.

Now our opponents tell you not to worry about their tax increases.

They tell you they are not going to tax your family.

No, they're just going to tax 'businesses'! So unless you buy something from a 'business', like groceries or clothes or gasoline ... or unless you get a paycheck from a big or a small 'business', don't worry ... it's not going to affect you.

They say they are not going to take any water out of your side of the bucket, just the 'other' side of the bucket! That's their idea of tax reform."
Liberals, socialists and communists (but I repeat myself) just don't get this fundamental aspect of reality. The private economy, that is businesses large and small, is the goose that is laying these golden eggs they are so keen to redistribute. Government itself does not create any jobs, at least no real ones that aren't canceled out by job losses from the effects of taxation or borrowing.

The US now has one of the highest tax burdens on business of all the industrialized countries. The results are obvious, if one is willing to look and think: fewer US jobs and higher prices. Businesses don't pay taxes, only people do. Businesses only pass along their costs from the taxes through higher prices, by employing fewer workers, and/or they go out of business.
Socialists/liberals like to make a big deal about their "compassion" and concern for The Little Guy, but their true agenda is all about punishing success. Envy of The Rich is what really motivates them. The Poor are really just a stick for liberals to use against The Rich.

Joe Biden's miniscule charitable contributions are a recent case in point. Sen. Biden, the self-proclaimed "Joe Lunchbucket" of the Senate, averaged $369 per year in contributions in the 10 yrs of tax returns he recently released (average income: $245,000). It's a safe bet that many conservative Nebraskans of much more modest means than Biden exceed his 10 yr contribution total every year. Apparently raising taxes is not only patriotic; it's also an act of charity.

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

Our Friend the Government

Accompanied by cheers from those who think you can never have enough government regulation of industry, let alone too much, the FAA issued a major smackdown to American Airlines this week. There was a familiar drumbeat in the media: another Evil Corporation shoving public safety aside in pursuit of Dirty Profits. [Of course, big media companies aren't like that; they're the Good Guys.] Stranded passengers were seething, furious at American.

If you haven't been paying close attention, you may have missed what all the furor was about. What critical danger required 250,000 people to be massively inconvenienced? It was all about 1/4 inch of extra separation in 2 wires:
Townhall.com::The Best Route to Airline Safety::By Steve Chapman: "The agency said the wires have to be an inch apart, rather than the inch and a quarter American believed was sufficient. Executive Vice President Dan Garton said diplomatically that the FAA action suggests 'a focus on extraordinarily strict adherence to specifics' that was not present in the past.

The FAA was embarrassed by the Southwest episode, which drew charges of dereliction from Capitol Hill, and it reacted with an uncharacteristic display of toughness on an old directive.

As The Washington Post reported, industry officials said that in the past, 'the agency would probably have allowed the carrier to make the fixes over a period of days or weeks. They noted that the 2006 directive on the MD-80 wiring gave airlines 18 months to comply. That means that regulators, while concerned about the wiring, didn't believe that making the changes was a pressing safety matter.'

But all of a sudden it became one, and the result was some 250,000 stranded travelers. The mass inconvenience would be justified if it meant saving even one or two lives. But unnoticed in the furor is that during all the time these carriers were doing something supposedly dangerous, it didn't cause any accidents. The carriers' definition of 'safe' seems to have been vindicated."
Of course, Garton and American had better be "diplomatic," since it has just been vividly demonstrated that the FAA can run them out of business in days on a whim. When a regulatory agency is in full CYA mode, you'd better not piss them off any further by standing up for yourself and your customers. So 250,000 people had to miss flights, meetings, vacations, and homecomings and spend extra nights in hotels or airports, just so that the FAA can prove its "toughness" to grandstanding politicians.

In the end, this safety tempest was in an even smaller teapot, because only a few of the grounded planes were actually found to to have wiring outside the allowed distance, if that even matters.

UPDATE: It was not 250,000 inconvenienced passengers; it was 500,000. We apologize for the error.

You might also ask yourself, how pursuit of profits would lead rational managers to disregard safety. Unsafe airlines don't draw any passengers and quickly go broke.

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